Overview: We will study and simulate on computers the fractional Gaussian fields and their discretizations on surfaces like the two-dimensional sphere or two-dimensional torus. The study of the maxima of those processes will be done and conjectures formulated concerning limit laws. Particular attention will be paid to log-correlated fields (the so-called Gaussian free field).
In practice, financial models are not exact — as in any field, modeling based on real data introduces some degree of error. However, we must consider the effect error has on the calculations and assumptions we make on the model. In complete markets, optimal hedging strategies can be found for derivative securities; for example, the recursive hedging formula introduced in Steven Shreve’s “Stochastic Calculus for Finance I” gives an exact expression in the binomial asset model, and as a result the unique arbitrage-free price can be computed at any time for any derivative security.
In incomplete markets this cannot be accomplished; one possibility for computing optimal hedging strategies is the method of sequential regression. We considered this in discrete-time; in the (complete) binomial model we showed that the strategy of sequential regression introduced by Follmer and Schweizer is equivalent to Shreve’s recursive hedging formula, and in the (incomplete) trinomial model we both explicitly computed the optimal hedging strategy predicted by the Follmer-Schweizer decomposition and we showed that the strategy is stable under small perturbations.
Financial markets have asymmetry of information when it comes to the prices of assets. Some investors have more information about the future prices of assets at some terminal time. However, what is the value of this extra information?
We studied this anticipation in various models of markets in discrete time and found (with proof) the value of this information in general complete and incomplete markets. For special utility functions, which represent a person’s satisfaction, we calculated this information for both binomial (complete) and trinomial (incomplete) models.
We study the Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and and Central Limit Theorems (CLT) for products of random matrices. The limit of the multiplicative LLN is called the Lyapunov exponent. We perturb the random matrices with a parameter and we look to find the dependence of the the Lyapunov exponent on this parameter. We also study the variance related to the multiplicative CLT. We prove and conjecture asymptotics of various parameter dependent plots.
Publication: “Lyapunov exponent and variance in the CLT for products of random matrices related to random Fibonacci sequences” — arXiv:1809.02294, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B25 (2020), pp 21
We investigated systems of complex-valued ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that blows up in finite time, which we refer to as explosive systems. The goal is to understand for what initial conditions does the system explode and will the addition of noise stabilize it; that is, if we were to perturb the system with an additive Brownian motion, will the system of stochastic differential equation (SDE) still be explosive? In fact, we were able to prove a toy model of the stochastic Burgers’ equation to be ergodic; that is, the SDE is nonexplosive and it has a unique limiting distribution.
This group considered the stability of matrix Lie group valued stochastic differential equations, dXt = AXtdt + BXtdt. Random dynamical systems such as this arise in many applications (e.g., oceanic turbulence, helicopter blade motion, light in random channels, wireless networks) in which stability is of practical and theoretical concern. The stability of the zero solution, Xt = 0, is determined by the top Lyapunov exponent. But in practice, analytic calculations of the Lyapunov exponent are often impossible, so time discrete approximations and simulations are necessary. Oceledet’s famous multiplicative ergodic theorem ensures that the Lyapunov exponent of Xt is almost surely constant. But the Lyapunov exponent of a time discrete approximation is itself a random variable. The mean of this random variable has been studied. The group provided estimates on the variance, distribution and rate of convergence in certain numerical approximation methods. In addition, they expanded on and provided simulations for recent results regarding the top Lyapunov exponent of certain Lie group valued SDEs.